Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for Flood Prediction: An Application
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction
Downscaling global weather prediction model outputs to individual locations or local scales is a common practice for operational weather forecast in order to correct the model outputs at subgrid scales. This paper presents an empirical-statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction which uses a feed-forward multilayer perceptron MLP neural network. The MLP architecture was optimize...
متن کاملThe application of LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) in Southern Italy
This paper reports preliminary results of a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on RAMS, for eight case studies of moderate-intense precipitation over Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. LEPS aims to transfer the benefits of a probabilistic forecast from global to regional scales in countries where local orographic forcing is a key factor to force co...
متن کاملan application of fuzzy logic for car insurance underwriting
در ایران بیمه خودرو سهم بزرگی در صنعت بیمه دارد. تعیین حق بیمه مناسب و عادلانه نیازمند طبقه بندی خریداران بیمه نامه براساس خطرات احتمالی آنها است. عوامل ریسکی فراوانی می تواند بر این قیمت گذاری تاثیر بگذارد. طبقه بندی و تعیین میزان تاثیر گذاری هر عامل ریسکی بر قیمت گذاری بیمه خودرو پیچیدگی خاصی دارد. در این پایان نامه سعی در ارائه راهی جدید برای طبقه بندی عوامل ریسکی با استفاده از اصول و روش ها...
Probabilistic forecast of daily areal precipitation focusing on extreme events
A dynamical downscaling scheme is usually used to provide a short range flood forecasting system with highresolved precipitation fields. Unfortunately, a single forecast of this scheme has a high uncertainty concerning intensity and location especially during extreme events. Alternatively, statistical downscaling techniques like the analogue method can be used which can supply a probabilistic f...
متن کاملProbabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe
Abstract. The limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF since November 2002. Five runs of the non-hydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM) are available every day, nested on five selected members of three consecutive 12-h lagged ECMWF global ensembles. The limited-area ensemble forecasts range up to 120 h and LM-based probabilistic produc...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Hydrometeorology
سال: 2008
ISSN: 1525-7541,1525-755X
DOI: 10.1175/2007jhm858.1